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India SHOCKS Russia: Cuts Oil Imports by 38% in October 2025 – Biggest Drop Ever! Is the Golden Era of Cheap Russian Crude Over?

India Slashes Russian Oil Imports by 38% in October—Sharpest Drop Yet


In a move that has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, India – once the biggest buyer of discounted Russian crude – slashed its oil imports from Moscow by a staggering 38% in value and 31% in volume in October 2025, official government data revealed today.This is the sharpest monthly drop ever recorded since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and began flooding Asia with cheap Urals and ESPO blends. So what exactly is going on?The Numbers Don’t Lie
  • October 2025 Russian oil imports: $2.8 billion (down from $4.5 billion in September)
  • Volume: 1.38 million barrels per day (down 31% MoM)
  • Russia’s share in India’s total crude basket: Slipped below 30% for the first time in over two years
  • India’s overall crude imports also fell 14% – the biggest monthly decline in 18 months
Why Did India Suddenly Pump the Brakes?Industry experts and refinery sources point to five major reasons:
  1. Discounts Vanished
    The famous “$10–$12 per barrel discount” Russian crude enjoyed against Brent has shrunk to just $2–$4 because of OPEC+ production cuts and stronger demand from China rebounding hard.
  2. Middle East Flooded the Market
    Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and UAE aggressively cut official selling prices (OSPs) in September–October to win back lost market share in Asia.
  3. Payment and Shipping Nightmares Continue
    Fresh U.S. sanctions on 183 vessels in the “shadow fleet” made insurers and banks even more nervous. Many Indian refiners simply refused to take the risk.
  4. Refinery Maintenance Season
    Several large Indian refineries (including Reliance Jamnagar and Nayara) went into planned shutdowns, naturally reducing overall crude runs.
  5. Geopolitical Messaging?
    With Prime Minister Modi visiting Washington in November and President Trump openly pushing “Buy American oil,” some analysts see a subtle diplomatic signal.
Winners and LosersWinners
  • Saudi Arabia: Jumped back to No.1 supplier spot
  • Iraq & UAE: Gained massive market share
  • Indian private refiners: Locked in cheaper Middle Eastern barrels for Q4
Losers
  • Russia: Lost nearly $1.7 billion in revenue from India alone in one month
  • Indian state refiners (IOC, BPCL): Still sitting on high-priced Russian contracts
  • Putin’s war funding: Another blow after China also quietly reduced purchases
What This Means for Petrol & Diesel Prices in IndiaGood news for your wallet – possibly!
With cheaper Middle Eastern crude flowing in and the Indian rupee strengthening slightly, analysts predict retail fuel prices could drop by ₹3–5 per litre by Christmas 2025 if global oil stays below $75.Is This the End of India-Russia Oil Romance?Not quite. Russian oil is still cheaper than many alternatives, and Indian refiners have mastered processing high-sulphur Urals. But the era of “buy Russian at any cost” is officially over.As one senior oil ministry official told Reuters off-record:
“We love Russian crude, but we love our economy more.”Final ThoughtsOctober 2025 will go down in history as the month India pressed the reset button on its Russian oil addiction. Whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a permanent shift depends on three things:
  • How deep Saudi Arabia keeps its discounts
  • Whether Trump slaps secondary sanctions on Indian refiners
  • How desperately Russia needs cash in 2026
One thing is clear – the golden days of $30–$40 Russian barrels are gone, probably forever.

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